The World Bank retained Chreod to design a methodology for calculating present and future risks to cities from natural hazards, including those arising from climate change. The final risk model comprises five modules: assessment of metropolitan elements at risk; calculation of hazard probabilities; exposure analysis; vulnerability analysis; and individual risk calculation and aggregation. The model was tested extensively in Bangkok (Thailand), Ningbo (China), and Manila (Philippines). The World Bank is preparing to roll the model out to a larger number of cities to enable inter-city comparisons of multi-hazard city risks.
The World Bank has been working with China on urban development issues for two decades, both through lending and economic sector work. Reflecting a gradual shift to more metropolitan- wide assistance, a sector study in 2007 explored the linkages between land consumption, land use, and public transport in China’s metropolitan regions using Shanghai, Tianjin and Zhengzhou as case cities. The World Bank commissioned Chreod to conduct the Shanghai case study which examined the dynamics of industrial location in the lower Yangtze Delta and within the Shanghai metropolitan region.
A Special Evaluation Study on Urban Sector Strategy and Operations (SES) was launched by OED to support ADB’s revision of an Urban Sector Strategy (USS). To inform the overall SES, OED commissioned case studies of urban operations and the application of the USS in three countries: PRC, India, and the Philippines. ADB retained Chreod to conduct the PRC study which included assessment of urbanization trends, an evaluation of the application of the USS in China, and a review of urban loan and technical assistance operations in six cities.
With support from CIDA INC and the World Bank, Chreod conducted a two-year study for the central government of regional, urban, economic, demographic, and environmental trends along the Yangze River basin from Shanghai to Yunnan in the west. Our analysis of trends in more than 900 counties and cities identified 14 regional urban systems for which population and economic projections were prepared to 2020. Our projections of environmental infrastructure demands and investment requirements for each regional urban system helped to inform the geographic and sectoral targeting of World Bank support.
The World Bank commissioned Chreod to assist in the preparation of China’s National Water Resources Strategy to the Year 2020 by assessing likely urban water demand based on urban and regional development trends. Building on its Yangtze Basin research, Chreod assessed urbanization and economic development trends in over 200 cities in the Huang, Huai, and Hai River basins in the Greater Bohai Economic Region. This analysis provided the basis to project urban residential, municipal, and industrial demands across the Greater Bohai to 2020 as inputs to the Strategy.
The World Bank retained Chreod to survey the transient migrant population in the PRD to define the extent to which the proposed PRD Urban Environmental Management Project loan might be designed to include these populations. With assistance from Zhongshan University, 370 informal migrant households were interviewed in Guangzhou Shunde, and Dongguan. A principal finding was that the informal migrant workforce is not transient: Over 50% have worked in the PRD for longer than two years. Income and physical security, and access to environmental services remain major issues.